Oracle of Marin — The Best 2023 Predictions
Oracle: “An oracle is a person or agency considered to provide wise and insightful counsel or prophetic predictions, most notably including precognition of the future, …” In this case inspired by experience and intuition, certainly no deity.
Marin: Beautiful county north of the Golden Gate Bridge, between the Ocean and the Bay, with great history, culture and living. The oracle note taker recently moved there from Silicon Valley and feels privileged to live there.
Oracle of Marin (OoM): A person or agency willing to look ahead for a year on major world topics and look like a fool revisiting a year later. But what are all mental models (Charlie Munger, Almanac) or strategies of living (Geoffrey Moore, Infinite Staircase) worth if not applied to the future — in the tradition of Prometheus (a bit boldly sometimes, his picture is shown). The real identity, location and purpose remain shrouded in mystery. It seems the OoM comes out on the positive side of predictions, you decide.
In 2023, …
1. … in Western democratic nations, inflation will recede to acceptable levels, see especially Krugman. Rates may still be elevated beyond the aspired 2%, but overall market economies have shown themselves to be true to form, able to cope with severe exogenous shocks such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine, the pandemic and ensuing supply chain issues, and a multitude of severe natural disasters. Importantly in addition, governments especially in North America and Europe have proven themselves to be able to adapt on the fly and guide markets and nations, cope with current and even past social issues.
The OoM feels a strong validation of social democratic systems and norms and sees 2023 to be the first of many years to come, where a lot of positives will play out after recent dramatic challenges because of decisions well made (the OoM is always on the lookout for above-average decisions), and more confidence in decisions made within the systems going forward.
2. … the Covid pandemic will continue to recede. The pandemic has caused much death and disruption, some of which will sadly continue. But the level of existential contact severed between human beings, between families and close friends, essential business, will return to a needed amount, and levels of anxiety and stress will come down to something tolerable. 2023 will be the first year of some normalcy again.
3. … climate action and adaptation accelerate massively beyond innovators. The OoM is a strong believer in non-linear dynamics also playing out in social systems (meaning systems can be very or overly stable, to then shift very quickly and fast to a new state). Over the last years major technological, economic and political tipping points have been passed and there are now very strong positive feedback loops to support dramatic shifts away from fossil fuels and to repair ecosystems. 2022 also showed a big and accelerating erosion of influence of the fossil fuel lobby, and economics through the Ukraine war acutely incentivizing big changes across the board. New is that the cost, packaging and completeness of offerings will make ‘hedonistic altruism’ become the order of the day, so that climate action goes hand-in-hand with a better overall experience.
Point is, in terminology of the ‘crossing-the-chasm’ paradigm, in 2023 it will no longer be just the innovators doing the right thing a little bit, it will be the early majority, it will be a mass movement that cannot be stopped and will move very fast indeed.
4. Ukraine wins clearly and for all the right reasons, and Germany and France and the US and so many other nations were on the right side together. Russia implodes and the cold war ends. Autocracy is hit by a double whammy of terrible actions and poor economic performance (as above). This will play out in 2023.
Hopefully minds and hearts are ready to make the most of this (especially for climate action), here the OoM is not so sure, as it seems human beings always need at least one tribe to be against. But the Ukrainian people and its leader have shown a spirit that should inspire everyone way beyond mediocrity in what ‘we’ can do if only we want.
5. Little bonus: The cryptocurrency fad is over. Real work, real investments are what it takes, enough said.
6. Big bonus: Organized religion is now way past the tipping point of becoming irrelevant in advanced countries (question of causality, but clearly a positive feedback loop). People are not just agnostic or not practicing anymore, they are done with it and finally explicitly acknowledging as ‘non-believers’ in surveys in large majorities. So overall we still see the historic artifacts (like churches), but clearly organized religion is something in the rear-view mirror. This is especially a big deal as organized religion has held on so long because it was taught as truth to children when they were most vulnerable. Once not taught as reality anymore, the teachings of millennia ago are unlikely to attract anyone anew, as there are much better and well-founded worthwhile living strategies in our modern world.
Importantly, in addition secular humanism is making strong strides to a positive, universal worldview. So, way beyond atheism (being without), there is significant foundational work in the last decade to set us all up to be happy, self-actualizing people in democratic, free societies. See especially Kaufman Transcend (2022) and Geoffrey Moore Staircase (2022), what an incredibly powerful combination of recent books. The freedom, satisfaction and beauty of human-centric life will come into its own in 2023.
7. Big bonus: some of the worst big tech companies and corresponding networks (in terms of benefits and influence) are so thoroughly discredited (as described e.g. here) that people and societies will actively seek and build more human- or government-centric, less profit-driven replacements. 2023 will be the year where this is more than a European undertaking but a global one, and where major steps are taken away from hollow and wasted media exchanges.
Now, if you take the above 7 predictions together and see kernels of likelihood in any or all of them, you should be ready for a great 2023 overture over the weekend! Cheers!!
